Indonesia prepares to carry out B40 in January

Because case, costs might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says

B40 will need extra 3 mln tons feedstock, GAPKI states

Malaysia palm oil benchmark at greatest given that mid-2022

India might withdraw import tax hike amidst inflation, Mistry says

(Adds expert comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard cost)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recover in 2025 after an expected drop this year, but prices are anticipated to remain raised due to planned growth of the nation's biodiesel mandate, market experts said.

The palm oil standard price in Malaysia has actually increased more than 35% this year, raised by slow output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the compulsory domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to lower fuel imports.

Palm oil output next year in leading manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recover by 1.5 million metric tons compared with a projected drop of simply over a million tons this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research company Oil World, said he anticipates Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million loads next year after a 2.5 million ton drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, supply from somewhere else and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip slightly next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million loads in 2024.

"We would require a recovery in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke said.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The cost rise in palm oil in the past seven weeks has actually been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke said, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said additional feedstock of around 3 million loads will be required for B40 execution, wearing down export supply.

The present palm oil premium has already caused palm to lose market share versus other oils, Mielke included.

Malaysian palm oil costs are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric load in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest because mid-2022.

"Sentiment right now is red-hot and incredibly bullish, we need to beware," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods business Godrej International.

He forecast the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above until June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry prompted Indonesia to

consider postponing

B40 implementation on concern about its influence on food consumers.

Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import task walking

imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)